Modelling and Management of Risk – (M.Sc.)

Contents

Students on this course will gain specific skills in the areas of:

* problem structuring
* data analysis
* building decision models
* risk assessment in the corporate, financial, public and environment sectors
* decision making under uncertainty
* business simulation
* project evaluation
* resource management
* recognising the areas where business analysis can add value
* selecting appropriate types of analyses and applying them in an appropriate context.

Modules

* Risk and risk regulations

This module introduces the nature of financial risk, corporate risk, environmental risk, hazard risk and how these risks are quantified and used to make risk decisions. The regulatory framework for reporting risk is introduced and risk management for organisations and public policy issues including environmental risk are covered. The module also studies risk perception, risk aversion and risk assessment in terms of corporate and environmental impact.

* Applied risk and optimisation in financial planning

This module introduces advanced modelling techniques in linear and integer programming (LP and IP) and illustrates how an industrial software package can be used for investigating the LP/IP problems. Similarly, properties of cash flow streams are analysed and investigated using spreadsheet software. The concepts of optimum allocation of financial resources under uncertainty are studied and the basic issues of financial planning and the models that provide a mathematical description of these investment problems are introduced. Finally, financial risk measures and how they can be incorporated in financial planning models are detailed.

* Financial risk management

Main topics of study include: corporate financial performance, multi discriminate analysis, corporate failure and health, corporate governance, control risk self assessment, control theory, audit, treasury management, interest rate risk, foreign exchange risk, country risk assessment, investment risk, insurance, business opportunity and risk, investment appraisal using sensitivity analysis and scenario planning, forensic accounting, contract control and outsourcing.

* Risk, simulation and decision analysis

This module illustrates simulation as a decision making tool. All the relevant statistical concepts for simulation are introduced as well as basic decision theory. Case studies are used to show how risk can be modelled in a variety of areas and how re-engineering of the decision models can lead to less risk exposure. In particular the module covers case studies in project management, marketing, finance and waste management. Part of the course looks at the issue of gaining confidence in decision models using validation and verification.

* Dissertation

Preparation for the dissertation starts early in the spring term so that a productive start can be made at the end of May. Students have a university supervisor with whom regular discussions are held. In addition, for the dissertations carried out in collaboration with an outside organisation, students will have a company supervisor. Dissertations are submitted by mid-September.

* Assessment

Assessment is by a combination of coursework and examination. Examinations are held at the end of May. The dissertation is of a practical nature and related to the focus of the course. Each student working on their dissertation will have a university supervisor and, in many cases, an industrial supervisor as well.

Students admitted to the Postgraduate Diploma course, who perform well in the assessments, may be permitted to transfer to the master's course and proceed to a dissertation. Conversely, students on the Master's course, whose performance is below the standard required for a master's degree, may be considered for the award of Postgraduate Diploma.